What Influences Fertility Plan of China Migrant? Mechanism Analysis Based on House Price Perspective

The demographic imbalance brought about by China’s low fertility rate in recent years is a matter of concern. This paper uses data from the 2018 China Migrants Dynamic Survey to estimate the impact of house price on the fertility plan of the migrants. After using instrumental variable and propensity score matching to mitigate potential endogeneity problems, the results show that the higher house price in the inflow cities, the less likelihood female migrants have fertility plan; if the housing pressure of the migrants is low, their fertility plan is less affected by house price. The sensitivity of the migrants’ fertility plan to house price is also influenced by the infrastructure development in the inflow city. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the fertility plan of female migrants with larger family size, higher education level, and younger age is more sensitive to house price. This paper fills the gap in the impact of house price on the fertility of migrants group and analyzed the mechanism of the impact of house price on the fertility plan.